On March 10th, 2025, ESPN insider Jeff Passan reported that Gerrit Cole would be shut down for the entire 2025 MLB season and undergo Tommy John surgery. A full year and about a week later, Cole sported the Yankee pinstripe pants and faced another team for the first time since before the surgery. While we only got a small glimpse of the 2023 Cy Young winner, it was refreshing to see one of the mainstays in our rotation back on the bump.
Cole faced a very lackluster group of Red Sox yesterday, with the only notable hitter in the lineup being Kristian Campbell. He threw just 10 pitches, giving up two hits (one of them a bunt single), but holding them scoreless with the help of Austin Wells throwing out a base-stealer at third. The first thing to note for any pitcher coming back from a major injury like this is the velocity. Reports out of Yankees camp had been that Cole was sitting in the 94-95mph range, and touched 97mph. Encouraging for this stage in the rehab, but still not pre-injury Cole level. Today, he only threw six fastballs; however he averaged 97.1mph, and even dialed it up to 98.7mph for an 0-2 pitch to Jason Delay. The shape on these six fastballs was also encouraging as well, averaging 17.3” IVB (Induced Vertical Break), and 11.5” HB (Horizontal Break). Now for a comparison to his past seasons:
2019 with Houston: 97.1mph, 18.4” IVB, 11.4” HB
2021 with New York: 97.7mph, 18.0” IVB, 12.0” HB
2023 with New York: 96.7mph, 17.4” IVB, 8.4” HB
2024 with New York: 95.9mph, 17.6” IVB, 6.6” HB
2019 Gerrit Cole was one of the most dominant starting pitcher seasons that you’ll see, as he pitched to a 2.50 ERA while striking out 326 batters, which both led the AL. 2021 was his first full season in New York, when he finished 2nd in AL Cy Young voting. 2023 was his first Cy Young season, and 2024 was his half-season after coming back from his initial elbow injury. Over this timeframe, you can see how Cole started to cut the ball during his time with the Yankees, with his gradual decrease in horizontal break. He went from averaging 4.8” of more tail vs average on the pitch in 2021, to 0.9” of less tail vs average on the pitch in 2024. Cutting your fastball isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as many great pitchers opt for that “supinator” release (ex. Tarik Skubal, Dylan Cease, Freddy Peralta). But with Cole, his most dominant seasons have come with more of that “pronator” release, hunting armside run. Cole averaged 11.5” HB in his first spring appearance, his highest mark since his 2021 season. Could this be a sign of a philosophy change, and him trying to get back to that fastball with armside run?
Cole threw his two breaking balls with the other four pitches, two sliders and two knuckle-curves. Both pitches graded out well, and were up a tick from his average velocity the last time we saw him. Here you can see the game breakdown, with the rest of his pitch data courtesy of TJStats on X.
When looking at the 2025 MLB regular season, there were 151 pitchers to throw at least 500 four-seam fastballs. Among those 151, there were only four pitchers to average at least 11.5” HB at 97.1mph or higher. Chase Dollander, Daniel Palencia, Edwin Diaz, and Paul Skenes. Two elite relievers, a young up and coming arm, and the best pitcher in baseball. Among these four, none of them came close to averaging 17.3” IVB (Dollander: 12.4”, Palencia: 15.4”, Diaz: 12.9”, Skenes: 11.6”. Some fastballs that looked relatively similar to Cole’s shape include Kevin Gausman, Keegan Akin, Tyler Mahle, and Yankee teammate Carlos Rodon, however Cole beat them out in velocity by at least 2.5mph across the board. You can see on this chart where Cole would approximately land as the green dot.
So, what does this mean for this upcoming season? This is a VERY small sample size to analyze, and it’s more-so just fun to look at, and dream about what a Gerrit Cole return could look like if he can maintain this four-seamer. It’s unclear how much we will see Cole moving forward as spring training is wrapping up, but hopefully we can see him in game action once more, with more than 10 pitches to look at. If there’s a world where he can maintain this four-seamer, I would expect Cole to return to the 30% strikeout caliber pitcher that we’ve missed watching.